Hijack!

Should Sir Alex look to derail Dalglish's deal for Ex-Roma keeper Doni?  


Now that ex-roma keeper Doni is free from his FC Roma contract, should United sign him as competition and cover for De gea and Lindegaard? Having just completed the signing of 18mil David De Gea last week, would signing a competitor for the No.1 shirt have a positive or negative influence on the young Spaniard?

Doni in action for Roma in the Champions League

From our trusty friends at Wikipedia:
Total Appearances:
1-Tomasz Kuszczak 93
2- David De Gea 84
3- Anders Lindegaard83
4- Ben Amos 29
Total : 289 Appearances


Tomasz Kuszczak is expected to leave in search of regular first team football, to a club in the middle to bottom tier of the Premier League, which would reduce the total experience of the club's goalkeepers to a worrying low 196 games. If United were to sign Doni, the club will be acquiring a keeper with 305 games worth of experience and a keeper who has won trophies in two continents and for the Brazilian national side. At 31, we hope he'd have at least 5 good years left in him, and can compete with both De Gea and Lindegaard for the starting goalkeeper's position. He'd also bring Champions League experience to the club, who in losing Van der Sar and Kuszczak will lose 149 games of experience in European experience. For a fee of under 5mil, I believe he represents the much sought after "value", and given we are have already reduced the wage bill by shedding Neville, Scholes, van der Sar, TK, Gibson, and possibly O'Shea, we should be able to give him an incentivized pay rise on his Roma contract.

Player Valuation: Illogical, Irrational and Inflated.

For a few transfer windows, Sir Alex Ferguson has been watching Man City splash their cash from the south of France, while telling the media that there has been "no value in the market". While City have been living large, (for which I don't begrudge them) Sir Alex has been scouring the world for bargains, and in the last few years brought some high quality players to the club for relatively small transfer fees.

 Patrice Evra (£5.5mil), Nemanja Vidic (£7mil), Fabio and Rafael Da Silva ( £5.2mil combined-not sourced),  Ji-Sung Park (£4mil) and Javier Hernandez (£6mil) have all come to the club for under £10mil and have flourished at United. That said, when required, Sir Alex is not afraid to back player evaluations with the club cheque book, sanctioning the purchases of Dimitar Berbatov ( £30.75mil), Rio Ferdinand (£30mil), Anderson (E30mil ~as per Porto's books), Juan Sebastian Veron (£28.1mil), Wayne Rooney (£25.6mil), Luis Nani (E25.5mil), Micheal Carrick (£18.6mil), Owen Hargreaves(£17mil) and Chris Smalling (£10mil) as of season 2010/11.

Before we look at this summer's acquisitions, lets explore the factors clubs; directors of football and managers might take into account before opening the war-chest ( i love that cliche). Obviously talent/potential is one of, if not the most important factor in deciding on the transfer of young players, but other factors, like age, experience, footballing education, as well as back ground factors, like temperament, education,  ambition/drive/perseverance are all considered. Financial factors like transfer costs(including the length of contract at current club), wage and contract length expectations, as well as the club position in regards to their cash balance, access to loans, 'can they promote from their academy instead' and most importantly, space in their squad, play a part in determining if, when and how much to spend on a players' transfer.

Another element we should factor in, though hard to quantify, is the relative bargaining positions of the clubs involved. Essentially, we must work out how desperate the club is to do the deal. Clubs who are under financial/footballing pressure to sell almost always sell under value, while clubs who are able to "walk" from negotiations if they don't get what they "want" can usually extract more from buyers. Similarly, clubs who plan long term can afford to have a player in the last year of a contract simply play out their contract at their current club and move for him in January as he becomes a free agent, although they run the risk of him agreeing to extend his contract or demanding exorbitant wages when the time comes for negotiations.Sometimes this backfires on a club, but its rare that a "under the table deal" isn't done via agents to sort that kind of thing out in advance. That said, its not unheard of for players to do a 180 and leave a potential employer in the lurch.

Now acquiring talent is not a scientific process. Talent recognition is tough as it is,but getting highly talented players to your club for a reasonable fee is another matter entirely. How do you distinguish between levels of talent when the talent is non consistent? Consider Chris Smalling and Phil Jones, the former is older than the later, the later has more premier league experience than the former, although the former has played more professional senior games, and they are both playing together for the England Under 21s. Another anomaly would be found when comparing Jordan Henderson and Jack Rodwell to players like Henri Lansbury and Tom Cleverley. Henderson has been bought by Liverpool for a mammoth 20mil, with a similar figure likely to be needed to acquire Rodwell, while if they are to be sold by their clubs Lansbury and Cleverley are most likely to go for around 10mil. What makes this hard to fathom, is that all four are of similar age, experience and skill. So its not just talent that decides the fee for a player, what the buyer is willing to pay, which plays a significant part in the final fee. There are however, other factors that have an impact on transfer fees.

Other than talent, which factors should add the most to the transfer fee of a player? Experience? Potential resale price? Age? Should a talented youngster who's only played  half a seasons-worth of senior games but shown much promise  cost more than an experienced player, who still has room to develop and improve? Contrast "Kaka"29, who is rumoured to be available for around £30mil from Real Madrid, with the 19 year old mercurial talent Neymar, whos club Santos is demanding a minimum of E40mil. Everyone knows how good Kaka is, and even though he's had a few injuries, he presents less risk than Neymar, who is still honing his game, growing, and may/may not immediately cope with the demands of top level European football. So why does Neymar cost more?

If we take up the cases of Luka Modric and Javier Pastore, we see a similar thing. Although both clubs are looking to keep hold of their talismanic midfielders, there is no doubt that both clubs will sell for the right price. So why are Palermo expecting bids in the high 30millions, while Chelsea's opening bid for Modric was a "measly" £22mil?  Given Modric's experience in both the Premier League and Champions' League, isn't he less of a risk than Javier Pastore? One might argue that in accordance with financial risk/return modelling, lower risk should cost less and that more riskier investments should cost more, but intuitively, shouldn't a player that is more likely to succeed cost more, ( because success is closer to be guaranteed) when compared to a player who will most likely fail? So risk plays a major part in transfer fees, but its not just age related. Risk of Injury, Risk that a player is not suited to a league, and risk that potential is not realized all factor heavily.
 
How then, shall we contextualize the purchases of Veron, Berbatov, Ferdinand, and Rooney to United and the deals that brought Shevchenko and Torres to Chelsea? With hindsight, we can clearly see that some of these deals failed spectacularly while others were successes, although Torres and Berbatov still have to justify their price-tags to sections of their home support. Both Wayne Rooney and Rio Ferdinand had showed signs that they possessed enough talent to compete against the world's best at a young age and had put in consistent performances at a high standard to attract record breaking transfer fees to secure their playing services. They were still quite risky purchases, and it would have been disastrous if either one of them had proven not to be a success. Andriy Shevchenko, Veron and Dimitar Berbatov moved to Chelsea and United at 29, 26 and 26 years of age respectively, their natural talent was no longer under question and were considered to be in the peak of their careers. The fees paid for them were considered to be a fairly accurate reflection of their standing in the game and their footballing pedigree. At the time of signing, most Chelsea and United fans were united in proclaiming that they had bought a top quality superstar, who would drive their team into a trophy laden era of success, and that baring some disaster or injury, the individual would be a successful signing for their club. Neither Shevchenko nor Veron really settled into the league but even with hindsight, most people would take that risk, given the potential benefit. So it makes sense to pay top dollar to acquire top quality players whatever their age, even if their value is not going to appreciate. 

Other players are bought with appreciation firmly in mind. Cristiano Ronaldo is one of, if not the greatest example of this. Brought to United at the age of 18 for a not insignificant sum of £12.5mil, Ronaldo was bought with hopes, not expectations that he'd play out the remainder of his career at United. Initially introduced late on in games, with  a mandate to operate on the wing and cross the ball in for the strikers, there were many facets of his game that need refinement. Six years, 196 appearances 31 assists and 84 goals later, United sanctioned the sale of their prized asset, cashing in a world-record £80mil transfer fee, representing a  540% return on initial investment, excluding wages. Real Madrid had gotten a proven, goal scoring, creative talent, while incurring little or no risk, other than that of injury, given Cristiano wanted to move to Spain. If they wanted, they could sell him a couple years down the line and be sure that his value will not have decreased by much, if at all, if he remained fit and in form.This shows that clubs are willing to pay a decent transfer fee for a player they think they can make a profit on in the future. For many small to medium sized clubs, this is a heavily weighted factor in the decision making process.

Let's use the aforementioned criteria to compare a few attacking central midfielders being targeted by England's top clubs.

                           L. Modric      J.Pastore     A.Young     A. Sanchez  W.Sneijder  

Talent*                 7-8/10            8-9/10          7-8/10            8/10                8-9/10

Age                          25                   21                 25               22                     27

Experience   
Seasons Played        6                     3                   6                 3                     8       

---in PL/CL          High/Decent    None x2     Good/None    None x2       None/Winner

Football Ed.         D.Zagreb     Argentina       England   Chile/Italy           Ajax 

Potential Resale-       2/3 yrs            5/6yrs           2/3yrs         5/6yrs                1/2yrs
@ Profit-Window       

* Talent has no objective test from a distance, but judging on how early we've "heard about them/performing well at a young age",what size/stature of club they play at, how quickly they moved to a "big club" or trained with a big academy, i think, is a pretty fair judge of talent.

So how much should these players cost? If we assume that they are all on long term contracts (even though Ashley Young isn't), they all have similar personal characteristics( ambitions, perseverance, emotional stability, ability to fit in with team-mates)  and that they all command similar wages (even though I assume Sneijder earns considerably more than the others), the only real determining factors should be how well the manager/buying club thinks the player will fit into their team and how well they'll adjust to the unique demands of the league.They are young enough to have a few good seasons and be sold for a decent fee, but are also talented enough to justify holding onto them until they retire. They aren't complete "rough diamonds" that can be rationalized as gambles, like Tosic, Bebe, Manucho or Diouf, but still pose a certain amount of risk to the club, as they may fail to "settle" in Manchester, ( i seriously don't understand the problem of persistent rain) or be unable to cope with the speed/strength of the league.

This leaves us to the final question; "How much is too much?". Sir Alex is notoriously wary of getting caught in auctions for players, having narrowly avoided one in 08 thanks to Dimitar not wanting to go to City, but he has not been afraid to pull out of a bid because of it.  Given the inflationary nature of transfer fees,  the "english player premium" and  the "big club premium", its important to set a ceiling for each player, and try not to overspend by more than 4/5mil. Whether this means 35mil for Sanchez, 30mil for Modric and 20mil for Young, only the manger knows.

In Alex we Trust.

Goalkeeping Conundrum

Van der Sar, David Gill, Sir Alex and various other sources have been asked their opinions on who United will be looking to bring to the club for season 2011/12 and beyond. Spanish sources say David De Gea, German scouts recommend Manuel Neuer, journos with Dutch contacts favour Stekelenburg. All three of them have been assessed by Martin Ferguson and Eric Steele, and de Gea and Neuer have been watched by Sir Alex.

With Tomaz Kuszcsak also almost certain to leave, United will be left with Anders Lindegaard and Ben Amos as first team goalkeepers. Unfortunately, we have yet to see Anders in back to back games, though he has shown promise in his two outings in the FA Cup. He has, unfairly I might add, been overlooked in the running for the Number 1 shirt for next season, and although he was acquired for a relatively low fee, Sir Alex doesn't bring players in outside of the transfer window if he doesn't think they will add to the first team squad.

That said, I think it would be foolish for Sir Alex to not bring in at least one goalkeeper in the summer, at least one experienced keeper and possibly a young keeper who could be top class if given the time to mature on the biggest stage.  

Douglas Costa again,....really??

Someone who resembled Douglas Costa was seen by almost all the English football media in the directors box at Old Trafford yesterday, and subsequently, rumours of a summer transfer were printed in all the papers without a moments hesitation or thought. The fact that he was going to play in  Shakhtar's game vs Volyn in the Ukranian Premier League the next day seemed to slip the minds of these "Observant" people.

Given that he's sitting alongside the kids from the youth team, a row beneath Bebe and Lindegaard, I'd say he's a kid on trial from some other club, certainly not a professional footballer about to start a game the next day on the other side of Europe.

The likelihood of United signing Costa ahead of any of the big spenders in their current frugal financial state seems unlikely, given that Shakhtar would demand a hefty sum and Costa sizeable wages. True, United  do need to strengthen their central midfield, especially with Hargreaves and Scholes both expected to be leaving at the end of this season, but having committed themselves to contracts for Anderson,  Fletcher and Carrick, I doubt United will be willing to pay high wages on what would be a massive gamble. Given that United signed the other "next Ronaldinho" in Anderson, its unlikely Sir Alex has lost faith in him in a matter of months after agreeing to extend his deal. The technicalities of actually getting Costa to the Premier League is also problematic, as he will not have played  in the majority of Brazil's senior internationals, and would unlikely be granted exemption for exceptional talent.

United need a combative, defensive midfielder as soon as possible, to allow Carrick, Anderson and Gibson to play further up the pitch, and return to their natural attacking mindset. Douglas Costa ( if it really was him), isn't the answer.

Future Planning: Looking to "Summer":Possible Outs & Positions to Strengthen

Possible Outs:

Ritchie de Laet   Ritchie faces the unenviable task of trying to surpass Patrice Evra & Fabio at Left back or Rafael & John O'Shea at Right back. Although he is getting game time on loan in the lower leagues, playing for Portmouth is no indicator of potential to play at the very top level. His ability to play anywhere across the back 4 could be deemed sufficient to warrant a place in the squad next season, and his selection in the 25 man squad for both the title run-in and the Champions' League knock-out stages shows he may yet have a future. 




Micheal Carrick  Described by many a football journo as a mundane, ineffective passer of the ball, Carrick was seen as a luxury buy at the time of his acquisition, but true to form, he was the final piece required for Sir Alex's 3rd title winning squad.His accurate short and long range passing was exactly what was needed to feed the attacking skills of Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez, as he acted as the conduit between defense and attack. His decision making skills, vision and accuracy of passing were of special use to the counterattacking style United favoured in the Champions League, and alongside Hargreaves and Scholes, formed the basis for the 07/08 Champions League victory. He played an instrumental midfield role in United's hat-trick of domestic titles, even chipping in with some vital goals that secured narrow wins.

Darron Gibson
The last lad from the academy to successfully break into the first team squad, Gibson is without doubt a talented footballer. As most fans remember, he possess a power packed right boot, and is not afraid of shooting from upwards of 20 yards. His passing game is seen by many as a weakness, but is constantly improving. When deployed alongside two other central midfielders, Gibson has shown flashes of inspiration, vision and technical brilliance, a role that he has grown into as he gained  experience. Although he is only 23, (central midfielders really only mature and reach the peak of their powers at 25/26) the extent of his potential may not be deemed high enough to warrant a place in next seasons squad.

Patrice Evra
Having completed 5 trophy laden years at United, rumours surround the world's number 1 left back's future at the club, with stories appearing in both the broadsheets and the tabloids that he may yet seek pastures new in search of a fresh start and a different challenge. Having won a hat-trick of Premier League titles, two Carling Cups, and a Champions League medal, he may have already decided upon moving to Spain, where Real Madrid are looking to strengthen their defense. Getting anything upwards of 10million, in my opinion, would represent good business for the club.

Wayne Rooney
The talismanic striker of last season was seemingly replaced by a troubled twenty something lad over the summer, and although he has broken an 8 month barren streak with a brace against Aston Villa, he has been well below his world beating best for most of that time. Given his transfer tantrum back in October, which resulted in a new contract with greatly improved terms, questions can seriously be raised as to his long term  commitment to the sides fortunes. Being deployed on the left side of midfield so as to make space for Berbatov cannot be good for his confidence, nor his rediscovery of form.  Given the need for squad rebuilding, it may even be deemed prudent to do as Liverpool have done and sell off the highest value asset to use the funds to re build the squad. In my opinion, any offer of over 60mil is well worth considering seriously.


Positions to Strengthen 
GK- at least two required, esp if TK leaves, because having Lindegaard and Amos isn't enough back-up. and we don't know when/if Anders is first choice material. Neuer, Adler, Lloris, Rui Patricio, Stekelenburg, Akinfeev, De Gea, & Reina are all possible targets.  
Left back - Fábio Coentrão is widely tipped to join Fabio da Silva at Carrington, while  Sir Alex has even watched Emilio Izaguirre in the flesh.
Centre back-If Brown is sold/released, it may be time to buyback Shawcross &/or look for another continental based underpriced diamond in the rough ala Vidic. Subotic & Hummels look good, but Dortmund may only be willing to sell for top ( read inflated) dollar.
Central Midfield- given United needed at least 1 more player at the start of the season, Carrick, Hargreaves, Gibson and Scholes would leave a massive whole in the squad, which would require significant financial outlay. The only name even remotely linked, has been Steven Defour who would would still represent a gamble.  Players of the ilk of Pastore, Hamsik ( who's recently gone off the boil) Hernanes, Paulo Henrique- Ganso, would be great to see, but it would be interesting to see how they adapt to the rigours of the English game. YoungstersTunnicliffe, Norwood and Pogba may get some game time if deemed up to scratch, though that eventuality is slightly worrying.

Left Wing- Ferguson may be willing to persist with the combination of Obertan/Bebe/Nani/Park and Giggs,but if it were possible, a player like Edin Hazard or Alexis Sanchez may tempt the manager into unlocking the bank vault. He may also, however, simply promote Ravel Morrison, move Fabio further up field, or use Cleverley on/from the left.  

Striker - undoubtedly the hardest position to buy for, Rooney leaving would be massive news around the world ( not just in footballing circles), and would require the acquisition of both a creative force, and a goal scoring finisher. Having Hernandez on the books and developing magnificently is a great consolation, but we'd require at least two strikers to replace Owen, Macheda, Welbeck and Diouf regardless of Wayne's future.

Future Planning: Looking to "Summer":Probable Outs:

With the January Transfer window closing on Monday, with seemingly very little business done on United's part, fans have been forced to speculate about the possible comings and goings in the next transfer window. Anders Lindegaard was bought with almost no fanfare, and we've hardly noticed the players leaving Carrington on loan to the lower leagues. With Gary Neville having announced his retirement with immediate effect, Edwin van der Sar announcing he's finishing his own 20 year career at the end of the season and Scholes and Giggs entering the final phase of their respective careers, (with Scholes still undecided on his future past June) Sir Alex might have a lot of squad rebuilding to do. 


Probable Outs: 
Tomasz Kuszscak; all indicators point to United looking elsewhere for edwin's long term replacement, and with Tomasz expressing his desire for either a crack at the position or a move away for more playing time, I fear United will allow Kuszscak to leave for  about 5million.
 

Wes' goal Vs Liverpool

Wes Brown; having supposedly fallen out with the manager, Wes hasn't played a game this year and hasn't played many games this season. Having suffered through some bad luck with injuries and positional changes, he's fallen down the pecking order, now behind Rio, Vidic, Smalling and Evans for the centre back positions and is also behind Rafael O'Shea and even Fabio at Right back. Although Sir Alex has come out and said he wouldn't be sold in January and that he's still the best natural English defender, it could be that as Ritchie de Laet, Jonny& Corry Evans progress Wes may be squeezed out for 5/7millionto a club that can guarantee him a starting place.

Owen's cool Shootout penalty in Moscow

Owen Hargreaves; has had a torrid time with injuries since his 17million move to United from Bayern in May 2007. Out of contract in the summer, he is expected to be offered a play as you play deal, but if he does make a comeback in the final stages of the season, could be offered a better deal by a smaller club, or could go overseas to a slower/gentler league. This would present a great loss for the squad, as he was instrumental in United's 07/08 Champions League victory, having scored in the penalty shootout in the teeming Moscow rain.

Carrick, Valencia and Owen celebrate the winner vs City.

Micheal Owen; Having scored, that memorable goal vs City, a Champions' league hatrick vs Wolfsburg and many others in his first season at United, Owen's playing time and significance has been remarkably reduced as a consequence of the aquisition and success of Javier Hernandez. With his contract coming to an end at the end of the season, and clubs in the lower the United looking for a proven goalscorer, it was surprising to see Sir Alex hold on to Micheal throughout the January transfer window. Any number of clubs would be willing to increase Micheal's wages next season if they can sign him on a Bosman, however, Fergie may look to sign him on to a longer deal if  the younger talents are deemed not good enough, or not ready for United, or if the Glazers are unwilling to fund any big fee aquisitions.

The goal that helped win the 08/09 Barclays Premier League  

Federico Macheda Kiko exploded onto the scene with this goal against Aston Villa,  but has since stagnated, through lack opf matches, injuries and according to Sir Alex, an attitude of "I've made it". Fergie asked Kiko to go on loan to a Premier League club ( ala Cleverley, Welbeck, Diouf) but instead of listening to the wise one, accepted his agents advice and is playing for Sampdoria in Serie A, with an option to purchase, negotiated into the deal. My sources in Italy say he's almost certain to be purchased outright, as he's showing good touch and skill for a young lad in Serie A. In my opinion, United should be able to get around 10mil for him, and even then it may become a situation United live to regret, as he could be Giuseppe Rossi Mk 2. 

Mame Diouf has scored 1 goal in 6 appearances for the United first team, and scored 6 in 23 on loan at Blackburn. While there, Diouf has shown enough quality to be a useful player in the Barclays' Premier League, and contributes with both goals, assists and in approach play. However, he is yet to show the game changing potential that United strikers must possess to make a difference. Whether this is something that will emerge after more games is unknown, but i think Mame's career will flourish if he continues to get games in the Premier League, which may require him to either continue to be loaned, or be sold.

November Speculation

Alan MacGregor GK (31 January 1982)  Rangers FC 


With Edwin van der Sar expected to retire at the end of this season, and the "number 1" capabilities of Tomasz Kuszczak unfairly under question, the media seem hell bent on linking young and established goal-keepers with the club. With the club's goalkeeping scouts and head scout Martin Ferguson keeping tabs on various names around Europe, it doesn't seem to be too far of the mark that United are taking succession plans very seriously this time. Having already scouted Atletico's David De Gea(21) and Aalesunds' Anders Lindegaard(26), they have moved on to the Scottish international, who has performed remarkably well over the past few seasons both for club and country.  Personally, i still don't know who should be brought to the club, but I think keepers of the ilk of Fiorentina's Frey should be looked at closely before any decision is made.  

 Marek Hamsik  CAM 27 July 1987 Napoli 

Although the goals have been shared around recently, we have yet to replace Paul Scholes' central midfield goals, let alone compensate for Tevez and Ronaldo's goal contribution from 2007/08. The creativity of our central midfielders has been limited, both by Hargreaves' injury and the tactics deployed by Sir Alex. Hamsik has been an integral part of Napoli's ascent up the Italian league. Scoring and creating an impressive amount of goals, while also putting in impressive performances in the Europa League group stages. However, Napoli's  president De Laurentiis has said that the club are under no pressure to sell, and only a "silly offer" would tempt them into profiting on their 2007, 5.5million Euro acquisition.  Given the state of the club's finances, ( disregarding the official line), Hamsik may be out of the club's reach, and players like Pastore, & Paulo Henrique ( Ganso) may be more affordable if we strike a deal quickly enough. 




Steven Defour CM 15 April 1988 Standard Liege 
Since the infamous " get well soon" letter that found its way to the press, United has been linked with a move to secure the Belgian internationals' services. It has been recently revealed that the player has even turned down an offer from Liverpool to ensure he can accept any future offer from United. Although some doubt his usefulness and adaptability to the league, it remains to be seen whether or not he could perform a box-to box role, as well as act as a "screen" in front of the defense, while setting up play from a deeper position.